AFL (AFL) — Downtrend in force
AFL (AFL) is trading at $121.74, -2.87 (-2.3%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is down with a +5.5% move. Price is -6.0% from its 6-month high and +14.6% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~16%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 3 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
AFL (AFL) is trading at $121.74. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **down** with a +5.5% move.
Price is -6.0% from the 6-month high and +14.6% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~16%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($124.99, -2.6%) and above the 50-day SMA ($121.35).
Bollinger Bands Near the lower band — weakness
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $121.74, upper $129.87, middle $124.80, lower $119.74. Price is near the lower band — weakness.
Bandwidth is 8.1% of price — moderate. Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Below 50
RSI(14) is 33.2. Momentum has faded; the bullish case needs rebuilding.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-0.02, signal $0.87, histogram -0.898.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 0.90) over the recent 18 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money accumulating
The Accumulation/Distribution line is rising and sitting well off highs. Institutions are not aggressively distributing — large funds still appear net long.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($121.74) is +5.3% above the anchored VWAP ($115.63). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $121.74. Resistance above: $122.56, $123.83, $125.88. Support below: $120.55, $119.31, $117.16.
Watch $122.56 as the first upside level to clear, and $120.55 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$122.56
Resistance
$123.83
Resistance
$125.88
Support
$120.55
Support
$119.31
Support
$117.16
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (+5.5% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($121.35).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 33 — below 50, momentum fading.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-0.898) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.20).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bullish A/D line slope is rising — institutions accumulating.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($115.63).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-14T18:46:30.087684008Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.