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AJG (AJG) — Downtrend in force
AJG (AJG) is trading at $226.11, -4.99 (-2.46%) on the session. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is down with a +3.1% move. Price is -16.9% from its 6-month high and +17.8% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~30%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 2 bullish, 6 bearish, 0 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
AJG (AJG) is trading at $226.11. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is **down** with a +3.1% move.
Price is -16.9% from the 6-month high and +17.8% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~30%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($233.13, -3.0%) and below the 50-day SMA ($249.29).
Bollinger Bands Near the lower band — weakness
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $226.11, upper $253.70, middle $236.48, lower $219.27. Price is near the lower band — weakness.
Bandwidth is 14.6% of price — moderate. Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Weakening
RSI(14) is 23.9. Nearing the 30 oversold line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-7.00, signal $-6.31, histogram -0.695.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Accumulation — buyers in control
Over the recent 19 sessions, average up-day volume is 1.34× down-day volume. Price rises on heavier volume than it falls on — a sign buyers are more committed than sellers.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($226.11) is -1.4% below the anchored VWAP ($229.25). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 2 support levels
Current price $226.11. Resistance above: $229.35, $234.13, $246.82. Support below: $225.11, $219.27.
Watch $229.35 as the first upside level to clear, and $225.11 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$229.35
Resistance
$234.13
Resistance
$246.82
Support
$225.11
Support
$219.27
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (+3.1% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($249.29).
- RSI (14) Bullish RSI 24 — oversold, bounce setup.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-0.695) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.20).
- Volume profile Bullish Up-day volume 1.34× down-day volume — accumulation.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($229.25).
Generated from 127 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-03T17:16:55.900256242Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.