EXC (EXC) — Downtrend in force
EXC (EXC) is trading at $40.73, +0.39 (+64.2%) on the session. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is down with a -16.8% move. Price is -17.6% from its 6-month high and +1.3% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~14%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 1 bullish, 6 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
EXC (EXC) is trading at $40.73. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is **down** with a -16.8% move.
Price is -17.6% from the 6-month high and +1.3% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~14%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($41.18, -1.1%) and below the 50-day SMA ($43.75).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $40.73, upper $44.19, middle $41.73, lower $39.27. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 11.8% of price — moderate. Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Below 50
RSI(14) is 33.6. Momentum has faded; the bullish case needs rebuilding.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-0.99, signal $-1.01, histogram +0.015.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 1.05) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($40.73) is -10.1% below the anchored VWAP ($45.30). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 2 support levels
Current price $40.73. Resistance above: $43.82, $44.42, $45.76. Support below: $39.73, $39.27.
Watch $43.82 as the first upside level to clear, and $39.73 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$43.82
Resistance
$44.42
Resistance
$45.76
Support
$39.73
Support
$39.27
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (-16.8% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($43.75).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 34 — below 50, momentum fading.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+0.015) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.30).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($45.30).
Generated from 127 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-03T17:02:15.793904929Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.