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International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) — Downtrend in force
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is trading at $222.64, -2.87 (-1.32%) on the session. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is down with a -9.8% move. Price is -32.4% from its 6-month high and +8.2% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~33%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 1 bullish, 6 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is trading at $222.64. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is **down** with a -9.8% move.
Price is -32.4% from the 6-month high and +8.2% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~33%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($228.89, -2.7%) and below the 50-day SMA ($232.03).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $222.64, upper $249.03, middle $231.59, lower $214.14. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 15.1% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Weakening
RSI(14) is 24.6. Nearing the 30 oversold line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-3.79, signal $-2.72, histogram -1.063.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 0.85) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($222.64) is -9.4% below the anchored VWAP ($245.72). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 2 support levels
Current price $222.64. Resistance above: $232.88, $237.46, $240.81. Support below: $218.60, $214.14.
Watch $232.88 as the first upside level to clear, and $218.60 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$232.88
Resistance
$237.46
Resistance
$240.81
Support
$218.60
Support
$214.14
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (-9.8% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($232.03).
- RSI (14) Bullish RSI 25 — oversold, bounce setup.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-1.063) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.24).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($245.72).
Generated from 127 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-03T17:16:51.286181356Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.