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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) — Uptrend in force
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is trading at $495.18, -4.81 (-0.96%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is up with a +24.8% move. Price is -2.1% from its 6-month high and +40.4% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~50%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 7 bullish, 1 bearish, 0 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Strong uptrend in force
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is trading at $495.18. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **up** with a +24.8% move.
Price is -2.1% from the 6-month high and +40.4% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~50%.
Price is above the 15-day MA ($470.06, +5.3%) and above the 50-day SMA ($412.77).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $495.18, upper $550.53, middle $450.23, lower $349.93. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 44.5% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Extreme overbought
RSI(14) is 81.2. Mean-reversion risk is elevated; momentum often stalls here.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $28.57, signal $25.06, histogram +3.507.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Accumulation — buyers in control
Over the recent 19 sessions, average up-day volume is 1.56× down-day volume. Price rises on heavier volume than it falls on — a sign buyers are more committed than sellers.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money accumulating
The Accumulation/Distribution line is rising and sitting well off highs. Institutions are not aggressively distributing — large funds still appear net long.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($495.18) is +21.9% above the anchored VWAP ($406.34). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 2 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $495.18. Resistance above: $513.73, $550.53. Support below: $491.52, $450.23, $396.32.
Watch $513.73 as the first upside level to clear, and $491.52 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$513.73
Resistance
$550.53
Support
$491.52
Support
$450.23
Support
$396.32
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bullish Linear-regression slope is up (+24.8% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($412.77).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 81 — overbought, mean-reversion risk.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+3.507) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bullish Price in the upper half of the bands (%B 0.72).
- Volume profile Bullish Up-day volume 1.56× down-day volume — accumulation.
- A/D line Bullish A/D line slope is rising — institutions accumulating.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($406.34).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-14T18:46:26.535909307Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.