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MSI (MSI) — Downtrend in force
MSI (MSI) is trading at $447.41, -9.47 (-13.8%) on the session. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is down with a +1.4% move. Price is -8.9% from its 6-month high and +16.5% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~15%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 2 bullish, 5 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Downtrend in force
MSI (MSI) is trading at $447.41. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is **down** with a +1.4% move.
Price is -8.9% from the 6-month high and +16.5% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~15%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($455.02, -1.7%) and below the 50-day SMA ($461.82).
Bollinger Bands Near the lower band — weakness
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $447.41, upper $473.08, middle $457.62, lower $442.16. Price is near the lower band — weakness.
Bandwidth is 6.8% of price — contracted (low volatility, breakout pending). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Weakening
RSI(14) is 25.4. Nearing the 30 oversold line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-4.71, signal $-2.83, histogram -1.879.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 0.90) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($447.41) is +3.5% above the anchored VWAP ($432.10). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 1 support levels
Current price $447.41. Resistance above: $450.05, $461.59, $466.95. Support below: $442.16.
Watch $450.05 as the first upside level to clear, and $442.16 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$450.05
Resistance
$461.59
Resistance
$466.95
Support
$442.16
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bearish Linear-regression slope is down (+1.4% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($461.82).
- RSI (14) Bullish RSI 25 — oversold, bounce setup.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-1.879) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.17).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($432.10).
Generated from 127 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-03T17:17:37.494329587Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.