NVR (NVR) — Range-bound
NVR (NVR) is trading at $5,993.85, -303.75 (-2.16%) on the session. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is flat with a -10.8% move. Price is -15.5% from its 6-month high and +7.7% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~20%.
Probability scenarios
Bearish bias — 0 bullish, 7 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Range-bound / consolidating
NVR (NVR) is trading at $5,993.85. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is **flat** with a -10.8% move.
Price is -15.5% from the 6-month high and +7.7% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~20%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($6,194.01, -3.2%) and below the 50-day SMA ($6,275.42).
Bollinger Bands Breakdown pressure — closing below the lower band
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $5,993.85, upper $6,370.44, middle $6,188.15, lower $6,005.85. Price is breakdown pressure — closing below the lower band.
Bandwidth is 5.9% of price — contracted (low volatility, breakout pending). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Below 50
RSI(14) is 31.4. Momentum has faded; the bullish case needs rebuilding.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $-57.50, signal $-35.67, histogram -21.830.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Distribution — sellers in control
Down-day volume exceeds up-day volume (ratio 0.76). Price falls on heavier volume than it rises on — sellers are more aggressive than buyers.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money distributing
The A/D line is falling and well off highs. If smart money were exiting you would expect lower highs and volume spikes on down days — distribution pressure is building.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($5,993.85) is -5.3% below the anchored VWAP ($6,326.34). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 0 support levels
Current price $5,993.85. Resistance above: $6,158.05, $6,250.00, $6,323.15. Support below: none nearby.
Resistance
$6,158.05
Resistance
$6,250.00
Resistance
$6,323.15
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Neutral Slope is near-flat — range-bound price action.
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bearish Price is below the 50-day SMA ($6,275.42).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 31 — below 50, momentum fading.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-21.830) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B -0.03).
- Volume profile Bearish Down-day volume exceeds up-day (ratio 0.76) — distribution.
- A/D line Bearish A/D line slope is falling — distribution pressure.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($6,326.34).
Generated from 127 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-03T17:17:39.840331508Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.