SMCI (SMCI) — Uptrend in force
SMCI (SMCI) is trading at $43.69, +0.43 (+4.22%) on the session. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is up with a +98.1% move. Price is -12.9% from its 6-month high and +98.1% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~65%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 6 bullish, 1 bearish, 1 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Strong uptrend in force
SMCI (SMCI) is trading at $43.69. Over the last 127 sessions the trend is **up** with a +98.1% move.
Price is -12.9% from the 6-month high and +98.1% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~65%.
Price is above the 15-day MA ($40.94, +6.7%) and above the 50-day SMA ($36.79).
Bollinger Bands Near the upper band — momentum hot
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $43.69, upper $44.86, middle $40.37, lower $35.88. Price is near the upper band — momentum hot.
Bandwidth is 22.2% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Overbought
RSI(14) is 75.6. Strong but not yet extreme — approaching the 80 line.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bullish — fast line above signal
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $1.73, signal $1.61, histogram +0.119.
The fast line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive — a bullish configuration. Momentum is expanding.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 1.25) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money accumulating
The Accumulation/Distribution line is rising and sitting well off highs. Institutions are not aggressively distributing — large funds still appear net long.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Above anchored VWAP — period buyers in profit
Price ($43.69) is +29.3% above the anchored VWAP ($33.80). Buyers who entered at the period's volume-weighted average are in profit and less likely to panic-sell.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 2 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $43.69. Resistance above: $43.76, $44.86. Support below: $41.90, $40.13, $39.67.
Watch $43.76 as the first upside level to clear, and $41.90 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$43.76
Resistance
$44.86
Support
$41.90
Support
$40.13
Support
$39.67
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bullish Linear-regression slope is up (+98.1% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($36.79).
- RSI (14) Bearish RSI 76 — overbought, mean-reversion risk.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bullish Histogram positive (+0.119) — fast line above signal.
- Bollinger %B Bullish Price in the upper half of the bands (%B 0.87).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Bullish A/D line slope is rising — institutions accumulating.
- AVWAP Bullish Price above anchored VWAP ($33.80).
Generated from 127 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-10-03T17:17:49.026325091Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.