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ULTA (ULTA) — Uptrend in force
ULTA (ULTA) is trading at $510.36, -54.79 (-9.69%) on the session. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is up with a -27.8% move. Price is -27.8% from its 6-month high and +13.2% from its 6-month low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~31%.
Probability scenarios
Bullish bias — 3 bullish, 3 bearish, 2 neutral of 8 signals.
Trend Strong uptrend in force
ULTA (ULTA) is trading at $510.36. Over the last 125 sessions the trend is **up** with a -27.8% move.
Price is -27.8% from the 6-month high and +13.2% from the low. Annualised volatility (30-day) is ~31%.
Price is below the 15-day MA ($525.95, -3.0%) and above the 50-day SMA ($485.85).
Bollinger Bands Inside the bands — range-bound
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): price is at $510.36, upper $567.64, middle $515.18, lower $462.72. Price is inside the bands — range-bound.
Bandwidth is 20.4% of price — expanded (high volatility). Width contraction often precedes a directional breakout; expansion confirms one underway.
RSI (14) Healthy pullback
RSI(14) is 52.6. Above 50 — bullish momentum intact, no exhaustion.
Generally: above 70 = overheated, above 50 = bullish trend, below 50 = bearish trend, below 30 = oversold.
MACD (12, 26, 9) Bearish — momentum slowing
MACD (12, 26, 9): line $13.35, signal $15.21, histogram -1.865.
The fast line has crossed below the signal line and the histogram is negative. Price may still be rising overall, but momentum is weakening — often seen before a correction, a sideways consolidation, or a final push higher.
Volume Analysis Balanced volume
Up-day and down-day volume are roughly even (ratio 1.11) over the recent 19 sessions — no strong conviction either way.
Rule of thumb: price up on high volume = accumulation; price down on high volume = distribution. Low-volume pullbacks after a rally are usually profit-taking, not panic.
Smart Money (A/D) Smart money on hold
The A/D line slope is flat and the line is well off highs — institutions are neither aggressively accumulating nor distributing.
A/D combines price position within the day's range with volume: rising = net buying pressure, falling = net selling pressure. It often leads price at turning points.
Anchored VWAP Below anchored VWAP — period buyers underwater
Price ($510.36) is -2.5% below the anchored VWAP ($523.30). Period buyers are underwater — overhead supply tends to cap rallies.
Anchored VWAP is the volume-weighted average from the start of the scraped series — a proxy for the period's average institutional cost basis.
Key Levels 3 resistance / 3 support levels
Current price $510.36. Resistance above: $516.37, $543.96, $566.73. Support below: $482.79, $471.20, $461.08.
Watch $516.37 as the first upside level to clear, and $482.79 as the first downside level to hold. A clean break of either often determines the next leg.
Resistance
$516.37
Resistance
$543.96
Resistance
$566.73
Support
$482.79
Support
$471.20
Support
$461.08
Signal breakdown
- Trend (6mo) Bullish Linear-regression slope is up (-27.8% over the period).
- Price vs 50-day SMA Bullish Price is above the 50-day SMA ($485.85).
- RSI (14) Bullish RSI 53 — holding above 50, momentum intact.
- MACD (12,26,9) Bearish Histogram negative (-1.865) — fast line below signal.
- Bollinger %B Bearish Price in the lower half of the bands (%B 0.45).
- Volume profile Neutral Volume balanced between up and down days.
- A/D line Neutral A/D line slope is flat.
- AVWAP Bearish Price below anchored VWAP ($523.30).
Generated from 125 daily closes in the scraped 6-month OHLCV series (quote data 2026-08-14T18:47:26.353892191Z). Every level, rating, and probability traces to a computed indicator — no commentary is hand-written or fixed per symbol. Recomputed on each page load from the latest scrape.